<< >> Rodger Baker, The Hill December 31, 2022. How will all of this affect politics and international relations globally? %PDF-1.3 License No375, Association Memberships: Japan Investment Advisers Association, the Investment Trusts Association, Japan, Japan Securities Dealers Association, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.) /F9 48 0 R In Taiwan, independently operated by BlackRock Investment Management (Taiwan) Limited. /Tabs /S Despite continued sparring with the US, 2022 should not be a year of crisis because of Chinas domestic agenda provided that the authorities in Taiwan do not provoke Beijings ire by taking steps towards declaring independence. As northern states emerge from their winter, further opening of economies will be possible. Bolsonaros hopes rest partly on centre-right parties not coalescing around a single candidate.RussiaRussia, by contrast, will not be troubled by questions over who will be president. The Website has not made, and expressly disclaims, any representations with respect to any forward-looking statements. Armin Rosen , Jeremy Bender, and Pierre Bienaim. /Annots [75 0 R 76 0 R 77 0 R] /Font << The first Russia-Africa Summit was held in Sochi (Russia) in 2019. Contributors to the July BUlletin explore the development of a new era in export credit, through the lens of proceedings at the IWG; trade wars; sustainability andexport finance regulation, Themes for this month focus on: Linking Trade and Economic Growth /Collaborative approaches toSustainable Development /Wind Financing / Digital Innovation / Venezuela /, By all accounts 2017 was an excellent year for Berne Union members. House approves measure targeting Biden rule allowing money managers to consider Top takeaways from student loan forgiveness arguments at the Supreme Court, These beaches are the best of the best in US, according to Tripadvisor, Trumps polling strength causes heartburn for Senate GOP. endobj Join facilitator John Busch and share your thoughts on current events at this monthly discussion group. With the world reaching for climate targets and decarbonization, whilst simultaneously struggling with geopolitical conflicts, pricing . Blackrock Advisors (UK) Limited - Dubai Branch is a DIFC Foreign Recognised Company registered with the DIFC Registrar of Companies (DIFC Registered Number 546), with its office at Unit 06/07, Level 1, Al Fattan Currency House, DIFC, PO Box 506661, Dubai, UAE, and is regulated by the DFSA to engage in the regulated activities of Advising on Financial Products and Arranging Deals in Investments in or from the DIFC, both of which are limited to units in a collective investment fund (DFSA Reference Number F000738) In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, The information contained within is intended strictly for Sophisticated Investors as defined in the CMA Implementing Regulations. In Canada, with the election now behind him, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will make efforts to curb the oil and gas industry. issued in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) by BlackRock Saudi Arabia (BSA), authorised and regulated by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), License No. >> /ExtGState << endobj /Resources << Rising US interest rates could complicate the task of rolling over this short term debt and also push up the cost of servicing debt through local currency depreciation. /StructParents 9 For Other APAC Countries, this material is issued for Institutional Investors only (or professional/sophisticated /qualified investors, as such term may apply in local jurisdictions). /F6 50 0 R Weekly Geopolitical Report - The 2022 Geopolitical Outlook (December 13, 2021) by Bill O'Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last WGR of 2021; the next report will be published on January 18, 2022. For Professional Investors only (Professional Investor is defined in Financial Instruments and Exchange Act). The divergence on vaccine progress between developed and developing countries, and to some extent within them, is mirrored by their economic prospects. /ModDate (D:20220705215933+01'00') All other trademarks are those of their respective owners. This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows . The Website is intended for the following audiences in each respective country or region: In the U.S.: public distribution. His inflation and COVID-19 mismanagement has stripped him of all but his most ardent supporters. Coupled with Japans shifting defense posture and continued Chinese military expansion, it portends a more contentious and unstable Northeast Asia in the coming year or two. His government will deploy all the resources necessary to ensure that troubles in the property sector do not blow up the economy. /Resources << Credit: Getty Images Iran protests: Nationwide protests started after the demise of Mahsa Amini on September 13, 2022. January 26 Asia-Pacific: South Korea will release economic data for the fourth quarter of 2022, and it is expected to show a quarterly contraction. 8 0 obj Before we proceed, please take a moment to review and accept the following terms and Conditions: Track our top geopolitical risks and their potential impact on markets. /ProcSet [/PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI] % . /G5 46 0 R /F2 28 0 R This Website is for your personal use. /Parent 2 0 R Although the world is still struggling to emerge . With that in mind, here are five lower-profile geopolitically significant events of 2022, and what they may mean moving forward. >> /Image45 34 0 R Track the state of the business cycle for 12 global economies across Asia and Europe. Geopolitical rivalries like that between Algeria and Morocco and the one between Iran and Saudi-Arabia complicate the search . Backgrounders - December 5, 2022. >> Los Angeles Events - January 2023. In Qatar, for distribution with pre-selected institutional investors or high net worth investors. In South Korea, this material is for distribution to the Qualified Professional Investors (as defined in the Financial Investment Services and Capital Market Act and its sub-regulations). In the two decades before the pandemic, global supply chains became sophisticated, low margin and highly vulnerable as companies drove down costs, relying on just-in-time models and sole suppliers. Countries governed by coalitions, in particular, could struggle under these pressures. Yet that winter will pose new strains for some developed states, as publics press for increased freedom of movement and governments seek to press the vaccine-hesitant and the vaccine opposed to either accept the jab or suffer limits on their ability to work and move. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue), by Rodger Baker, Opinion Contributor - 12/27/22 1:00 PM ET, by Jonathan Schachter, Opinion Contributor, by Retired Lt. Gen. Russel Honor, opinion contributor, Homeland Security: 20 years later, action still needed to make agency fully functioning, How the Western Hemisphere became the Leftist Hemisphere, Blinken stresses regional stability in trip to Russias Central Asia neighbors, Study: Toilet paper adds to forever chemicals in wastewater, Bipartisan senators unveiling legislation aimed at preventing more toxic train derailments, The shepherd boy, the wolf and the threat to Israeli democracy, Top White House researcher to leave for EPA role, This month, lets celebrate women like Marcy Kaptur, Why this needs to be the year Gulf Cooperation Council states take the lead in climate crisis mitigation, Its time to stop giving Ukraine what we think they need and give them what they want, Senate group wades into tough talks on Social Security, The Hills Morning Report SCOTUS skeptical about student loan forgiveness, Vance pitches PPP for Ohio while other Republicans say to wait, McCarthy, GOP pump brakes on release of Jan. 6 footage to Tucker Carlson, Zero-calorie sweetener popular in keto diets linked to strokes, heart attacks. You acknowledge that you have no right to use the content of this Website in any other manner. 18-192-30. The Contents have been prepared without regard to the investment objectives, financial situation, or means of any person or entity, and the Website is not soliciting any action based upon them. Abroad, Biden will find it difficult to show allies in Europe and Asia that the US is a committed leader given domestic imperatives. The EU sanctions against Russia will likely be extended ahead of the deadline. He disappointed economic liberals, big business, the military and those who looked to him to root out corruption. The Conference Board is the global, nonprofit think tank and business membership organization that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead. >> House Republican eyeing legislation to prevent Santos from profiting off Hemorrhaging losses, the Feds problems are now the taxpayers, 10 key figures who will and wont be at CPAC, Student loan forgiveness: Key statements from each justice, Murdoch: Hannity was privately disgusted with Trump after 2020 election, Feehery: Progressive DC government turning city into a dystopia. Indonesia, Japan, Brazil, India and others are pursuing their own national strategies to maneuver among the big powers and shape not only their regional environment but broader concepts of shifting global norms as well. /ExtGState << After nearly two decades of growing economic convergence between developed and developing economies at the start of this century, the pandemic shifted the path to one of divergence as 2020 wore on and 2021 began. G20 foreign ministers will meet in New Delhi (India) for the first time under the new Indian presidency. >> This months contributors examine three economies seemingly at turning points Argentina, Iran and the Cte dIvoire considering in each case the forces actively inuencing the trade environment and the approach of the nancial Commentators this month focus on support for small businesses, local contractors and risk in Africa - including energy sector and analysis of the Mozambique debt crisis. >> Geopolitical risk dashboard July 2022 . Top-level appointments will consolidate his power. Russias (re)invasion of Ukraine triggered the other seven members of the Arctic Council to cease participation in the body, which is under Russian rotational leadership. Export Credit and Investment Insurance, Today and Tomorrow. /Type /Group /F9 48 0 R IndiaAsias other giant, India, will enter 2022 expecting a vigorous economic rebound and the lifting of restrictions as it eventually gets to grips with COVID-19. Geopolitical events like military or economic conflicts can affect stock markets in many ways. This edition of the BUlletin addresses the evolving role of various international financial institutions in generating sufficient risk capital for development projects and in particular investment in critical infrastructure and renewable energy. This comes as South Africa takes over chairmanship for the BRICS group of which these countries (along with India and Brazil) are members. I am passionate about drawing actionable geopolitical insights from all-source data and communicating them to key stakeholders innovatively, forewarning them of risks and informing them of opportunities.<br><br>To this end, I have honed my research and analysis skills by writing extensively on geopolitics and . Greenwashing is a growing concern in today's business world. Russia has not been invited this year due to the Ukraine conflict. Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of 2022. https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/investor-right. The Shangri-La Dialogue will provide a forum to discuss critical regional security issues. Consequently, Russias authorities will grind their way through the early months of 2022 amid high COVID-19 case numbers and fatalities, as well as popular dissatisfaction over high inflation. US President Joe Biden enters 2022 with low approval ratings, with voters blaming his government rather than the Fed for elevated inflation. In 2022, we saw major disruptions that can result from drought. General disclosure: This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. Our in-person and virtual events offer unmatched opportunities for professional development, featuring top experts and practitioners. Russia Energy Week will take place in Moscow (Russia) and is one of the key international events for discussing current trends in the fuel and energy industry. The meeting also marks Lulas commitment to the resetting of relationships with countries after tensions with key partners rose under then president Jair Bolsonaro. What has weakened, perhaps, is the conviction that Western punishment for military action against Ukraine will extend beyond economicsanctions. /StructParents 4 Our main result suggests that the rise in geopolitical risks seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have non-negligible macroeconomic effects in 2022. Technology-driven trade and client interaction are nothing new. /ExtGState << The opinions expressed are as of the date shown above and are subject to change without notice. Some reconstituted supply chains will be shorter, thicker and have greater redundancy. Once again, we try to forecast the events most likely to induce crucial changes for the world (economy) in 2022. . /F2 28 0 R Political Risks in 2022. Track the status of job markets across the US through online job listings. In China, this material may not be distributed to individuals resident in the Peoples Republic of China (PRC, for such purposes, excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) or entities registered in the PRC unless such parties have received all the required PRC government approvals to participate in any investment or receive any investment advisory or investment management services. February 2018 (Revised March 2022) Measuring Geopolitical Risk . Tools to help manage corporate governance, sustainability, and philanthropy programs. >> A more immediate concern is inflation. But which approaches can best build upon the opportunities presented by growing intra-regional trade, and investment in sustainable infrastructure? 2 0 obj /Tabs /S /ProcSet [/PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI] Our research and analysis have helped the world's leading companies navigate challenges and seize opportunities for over 100 years. Opening of National Peoples Congress Annual Session. 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